Autumn Budget countdown: four in 10 landlords say they'd raise rents if taxes rise - what it means for Clapham and Brixton

The Autumn Budget is almost upon us, and if you're a landlord you can probably feel your shoulders creeping up towards your ears already.

A new survey has put numbers on the mood. And, as usual, the people who'd feel the consequences most aren't the landlords at all. It's the renters.

So what's the survey saying?

LegalforLandlords asked 544 UK private landlords how they feel ahead of the Budget, which is due on 28 October. The cold hard facts:

• 59% are pessimistic about the Budget.
• Just 28% are confident that letting property will still be financially worthwhile in five years' time.
• Capital Gains Tax is the biggest worry for 22%, income tax on rental income for 20%, and the cost of possible energy efficiency upgrades for 18%.
• If the Chancellor raises the tax burden on landlords, 40% say they'd put rents up where they can. 18% would consider selling and 16% would leave the rented sector altogether.

To be fair to the researchers, they point out these are landlords' stated intentions, not a prediction of exactly what will happen. Still, it's a fairly clear message.

And bear in mind this isn't starting from a clean slate. As Property118 has reminded readers, last year's Budget already announced two percentage point increases in tax rates on property income from April 2027.

The Capital Gains Tax argument

Meanwhile the National Residential Landlords Association (NRLA) is lobbying for Capital Gains Tax reform in this Budget. Its argument is simple, and I have to say I agree with it.

At the moment, when you sell, the whole rise in value is treated as profit (apart from certain capital costs). The NRLA's research found that only around one-fifth of the rise in house prices between 2015 and 2024 was a real-terms gain - the rest was inflation. So it wants two changes:

1. Tax the real gain, not inflation, by adjusting the purchase price and qualifying spending for inflation before working out the gain.
2. Give relief for long-term holding, so someone who has housed tenants for years is treated differently from a short-term flipper.

As NRLA chief executive Ben Beadle put it: "It is absurd that investors face Capital Gains Tax on increases in property prices that are simply the result of inflation. That's not a real gain, and it shouldn't be treated as one."

The NRLA also points to Rightmove data showing each available rental property now attracts an average of 10 enquiries, double the pre-pandemic figure. Demand isn't the problem. Supply is.

So what does it mean for Clapham, Brixton and surrounds?

Now ears must perk up, because CGT is a very South London issue.

Picture a landlord who bought a flat off the Northcote Road or a two-bed conversion in Brixton 15 or 20 years ago. On paper, that's a big gain. In real terms, a good chunk of it is simply the pound being worth less. Under the current rules, the taxman doesn't care.

That landlord has three choices: sell and pay up, hold on and hope, or put the rent up to make the numbers work. The survey suggests a fair few will do the last one.

Who wins and who loses locally?

• Renters in Clapham, Brixton and Streatham. If landlords' costs go up again, the survey suggests rents follow. With competition for every decent flat already fierce, renters have very little room to push back.
• Long-standing landlords with big paper gains. CGT reform along the NRLA's lines would help them most. A tax rise would hit them hardest and could push some to sell up - which, of course, means one less rental home on the market.
• Buyers. If more landlords sell, first-time buyers in places like Streatham and Tulse Hill could see a bit more choice. That's the silver lining, but it doesn't help the tenant who has to move out.
• Newer, smaller landlords. Squeezed from both sides - higher tax on rental income from 2027 and rising compliance costs.

My take

Here's the thing. Every time the Treasury goes looking for money in the rented sector, the bill ends up on the tenant's doormat. It's not because landlords are greedy. It's because the sums have to add up, and if they don't, the flat gets sold.

The NRLA's CGT idea is sensible. Taxing inflation as if it were profit isn't fair, and it actively discourages landlords from staying in for the long term - which is exactly the kind of landlord renters want.

Will the Chancellor listen? I'm not holding my breath. My advice in the meantime: don't make a knee-jerk sale based on rumours. Run the numbers on your own portfolio, speak to your accountant, and wait to see what's actually announced. Take independent advice, of course.

So there you have it. A nervous few days for landlords, and potentially an expensive year for renters.

Are you a landlord in Clapham or Brixton weighing up whether to hold or sell before the Budget, or a renter worried about what comes next? I'd genuinely like to hear how it's playing out on your street. Drop me a line at jeroen@claphampropertyblog.com or call 07837 093554.

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07837 093 554

Sources: LegalforLandlords survey via Property Reporter (16 October 2026) and Property Soup (19 October 2026), NRLA via Property Reporter (16 October 2026), Property118 (15 and 16 October 2026).